Market Breadth Update

Thanks to your feedback I’ve decided to adjust what I’m posting regarding market breadth. In the graphics below you can see the ETFs I track and how they performed from week-to-week. I’m looking at three time-frames here with a short trend 9 SMA, a medium trend 50 SMA and a longer trend 200 SMA.

These graphs below show the 9sma, 50sma and 200sma as well as the close of the major indices. A healthy market would show the 9sma above the 50sma which is above the 200sma. Let me know if you have questions or suggestions.

Lever Up!

Every one of the top 10 ETFs ranked by trade volume via percent change for July were leveraged vehicles. Disturbing trend to me. Options are already perceived as a “gamble” or “too risky” by those unfamiliar with how they work and large leveraged losses can only add to that stigma over time. To the risk tolerant (dare I say gambler?), they see a potential “win” that is leveraged 2x or 3x the underlying and the attraction to such products becomes even more enticing.

$UYM (27.4%)
$TNA (25.2%)
$BGU (24.3%)
$URE (23.7%)
$TQQQ (23.6%)
$UXI (22.2%)
$UVT (17.7%)
$UWM (17.3%)
$UYG (17%)
$DIG (16.9%)

Take a look at the bottom 10 ETFs ranked by trade volume via percent change for July and the same theme is there–leverage.

$SKF (-17.2%)
$SKK (-17.3%)
$TWM (-17.7%)
$SJH (-18.9%)
$SIJ (-20.5%)
$SQQQ (-22.1%)
$BGZ (-22.1%)
$SRS (-22.5%)
$SMN (-24.4%)
$TZA (-26.4%)

I’ve never been a fan of the leveraged products so I’m (obviously) biased. I’ve seen first-hand “traders” come to me with accounts that have been cut in half (or worse) through the abuse of leveraged products. Many have the mindset that if they are right in direction then doubling or tripling their returns in a short period of time is a no-brainer. What they fail to understand, in addition to how the instruments themselves actually work, is that the losses are levered as well.

Whether or not you agree with me, the fact that leveraged products dominate the trade volume is no-doubt interesting. To be fair, I also know traders who trade nothing but leveraged products and do very well. I guess I’m too risk averse…or maybe I’m holding out for the 5x levered products before diving in. I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments.

ShrinkyLinks

Took the week off for a family vacation and looks as though I really didn’t miss much as a nice doji formed on the weekly chart for the $SPY. I’m writing a post for next week regarding my vacation and some of the lessons I learned. Hope you have a good weekend (there’s a link below to a free webinar I’m giving which is sponsored by the good folks at Tradeking).

How Money Restricts Life’s Pleasures

SyNAPSE: In Pursuit of The Cognitive Platform

Under Pressure: The Search for a Stress Vaccine

Investor Education: Rebuilding the Trust of the Global Investing Public

Free trading psychology webinar on the 24th of August

Bubbles, Bubbles, Toils and Troubles

Own It!

It seems so easy to focus on the things we do wrong. I can name hundreds of mistakes I’ve made in my life. I choose not to focus on what went wrong, but rather on how I can improve my standing and learn from my mistakes. I found one of the most frustrating aspects of being a therapist was the client who came in for a session and wanted to focus on the negative aspects of their life. The goal was usually to try and find fault or pass blame to someone or something.

I got to the point as a therapist when a client would start the blame game I’d cut them off. I’d hand them a notepad and pen and ask them to write down five things that have gone reasonably well for them lately. Depending upon the speed at which the client could create the list gave me an idea of how difficult it would be to work with them. Those that were quick to create the list were also those that took back control of their emotions and life with greater ease.

Can the same can be said of trading? How many poorly taken trades can you recall from your history?  Thumb through your trading journal and see what stands out. How many negative references are in there? How many positive references? If there are more negative than positive entries I’d suggest that you focus more on the latter.

We all know that very few who embark on a career as a trader make it. We also know that damn near everyone we talk to is a profitable trader, right? How can that be? WHO CARES!?! Be honest with yourself and learn from your mistakes. Exploit the things you do correctly in the market and turn a profit. At the end of the day it’s just you and your equity curve. You can choose to bullshit your buddies and tell them what a great trader you are (knowing that you’re more than likely break-even or negative) or strive to become a profitable trader and grow.

Trading is a business, not some fantasy league or hobby that we throw money at purely for entertainment. Treat it as such and keep the expenses low while looking for ways to increase revenue. To focus on losing trades while attempting to pass blame is pointless and the easy way out. There’s a reason the trade went against you, find out why. Understand that trades can and do go against you so manage risk before the trade is entered to minimize the loss, both financially and psychologically.

When you blame others, you give up your power to change.
-Dr. Robert Anthony

Market Breadth Update

The major indices put in a nice week and look poised to have a follow-through this coming week. If a follow-through occurs, the breadth will have made some higher highs as most indices are approaching 50% of their components trading above the 200 day moving average. Tech continues to lead the way so it will be key to see that continue as there are lots of names reporting earnings this week.

 

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